2027 Oscars Best Actor Predictions: Winner, Runner-up And Other Contenders

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When Michael B. Jordan surged ahead of a crowded field and won the Best Actor Oscar in 2026 for his dual role in Ryan Coogler's marvelous epic "Sinners" as twins Elijah "Smoke" and Elias "Stack" Moore," it was regarded as an upset after Timothée Chalamet blew audiences away in "Marty Supreme" and Leonardo DiCaprio delivered one of his best turns in years in "One Battle After Another." The Best Actor category is, arguably, one of the most exciting races to watch each year because it's rarely predictable. Just look at Adrien Brody beating Chalamet for "A Complete Unknown" (that guy sort of can't catch a break, and it's honestly a little funny at this point) or Anthony Hopkins clinching a second Oscar for "The Father" when everyone expected Chadwick Boseman to win posthumously for "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom." 

So, what about this year? 2026 was full of great performances from excellent leading men, and I'm here to make educated guesses about who might break into the Best Actor race. For the purposes of this exercise, we're picking a "likely winner," a "runner-up" (a possible upset, like the kind that keeps happening to poor Chalamet), and then three other people we think could score a nomination and potentially could end up winning as well. (Everybody who's not the winner or runner-up will be listed alphabetically.) Now that we've got that out of the way, who's the most likely winner in the Best Actor category at the 2027 Oscars?

Universal Pictures

I had my doubts about Matt Damon playing the hero Odysseus in Christopher Nolan's blockbuster adaptation of "The Odyssey" (which crushed the 2026 box office), and I've never been more pleased to be wrong. (I should have learned my lesson after the outcry over Heath Ledger's Joker casting for "The Dark Knight," which was followed, of course, by one of the greatest performances ever committed to film by the gone-too-soon Ledger.) Damon, who straddles two timelines — one convalescing and under the influence of memory-erasing lotus flowers with Calypso (Charlize Theron), and one flashing back to the sacking of Troy and ensuing journey home that, to say the least, goes awry — is fantastic in every frame as Odysseus. One moment, he's a swaggering general telling his men to sail their ships off course and crowing when they stumble upon island after island. In the next, he's a weary and aged man in disguise as he tells his long-suffering wife Penelope (Anne Hathaway), who's unaware of his identity, that he and his men are the dangerous "people from the sea" striking fear into the hearts of whole cities. 

Damon is, quite frankly, such a solid and dependably good actor that I think we take him for granted, and my evidence for that is that Damon has never won an acting Oscar or really ever been a serious contender. (He has one Academy Award for co-writing "Good Will Hunting" with his soulmate Ben Affleck.) Yes, Damon has been nominated for three acting awards for "Good Will Hunting," "Invictus," and "The Martian," but he was never the front-runner. Now, I think it's a safe bet that, come Oscar night, we'll watch Damon thank Nolan for the role of a lifetime.

Searchlight Pictures

Martin McDonagh, once a relatively niche playwright, has become a somewhat unexpected Oscars heavyweight in recent years thanks to films like "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri" and "The Banshees of Inisherin," which both earned Best Picture nominations, Best Screenplay nods for McDonagh, and a Best Director nomination for the latter. (McDonagh does have an Oscar for his 2005 live action short "Six Shooter," and he also received a screenplay nominee for "In Bruges," but he's only become an Academy stalwart over the last decade or so.) That's why his 2026 film, "Wild Horse Nine," will be a huge contender this awards season ... and if we're betting on the proverbial horse, I think the safest bet is that John Malkovich could very well take home an Oscar for leading McDonagh's latest project.

Paired with the permanently excellent Sam Rockwell (who took home his own Oscar for "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri"), Malkovich leads "Wild Horse Nine" as Chris Carlisle, an experienced CIA officer sent to handle a potential coup in Chile with his right-hand man Lee Chesterfield (Rockwell). Malkovich gets a lot to work with in "Wild Horse Nine" — not only is Chris world-weary and Lee's mentor, but he's suffering from a terminal cancer diagnosis — and he's "overdue" for a nomination. After Malkovich's first nod in 1984 for "Places in the Heart," he scored another for "In the Line of Fire" in 1993 ... and there's been nothing since. Matt Damon is the one to beat, but if Malkovich gets a nomination, he's got a real shot.

Searchlight Pictures

If Pedro Pascal gets a best actor nomination for his 2026 film "Behemoth!" at the 99th Academy Awards, he can go ahead and thank Oscar Isaac, who exited the project in 2025 and paved the way for Pascal to take over. Written and directed by Tony Gilroy, the man behind the best-ever Star Wars TV project ("Andor," obviously), "Behemoth!" casts Pascal as Alex Serian, a cellist who grew up as a child prodigy and who returns to his hometown of Los Angeles after two decades on the road. The role of Alex is tricky. Not only does it require Pascal to convincingly "play" the cello (and the Academy sure does love when actors can successfully pretend to play instruments), but the role requires solid interiority, and Pascal delivers, using his wonderfully expressive face to play the movie's moments of silence perfectly.

"Behemoth!" could very well be, well, a behemoth at this year's Oscars. Its cast also includes Olivia Wilde (who will likely earn a handful of nominations for her performance and direction on "The Invite" as well), Eva Victor (star of last year's standout "Sorry, Baby"), Will Arnett, and Hank Azaria, just to name a few. (Gilroy, one of Hollywood's most respected screenwriters, can probably expect a screenplay nod as well ... and perhaps even one for directing.) Still, it would be wonderful to see Pascal, an Emmy nominee who's never earned an Academy nomination, join this category for his work as the taciturn and troubled Alex.

A24

It's amusing to me personally that the teen heartthrob I saw in "Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire" and the Twilight Saga films is now one of Hollywood's most audacious and delightfully odd performers, and even though I also think Robert Pattinson is a borderline lock to outright win the Best Supporting Actor race for his role as a slimy suitor in "The Odyssey," new Academy rules (per Variety) mean that he could potentially snag a nod for his lead role in "Primetime" as well. In documentary filmmaker Lance Oppenheim's phenomenal feature debut, Pattinson, the king of weird accents, does a pitch-perfect impression of "To Catch a Predator" host and "Dateline NBC" reporter Chris Hansen while at the same time managing to make his character feel lived-in and real (and not like a drawn-out "Saturday Night Live" impression, which is the case with most biopics).

Pattinson's Chris is so wrapped up in his own mythos and fame that he allows his personal life to face complete ruin while he's laser-focused on finding increasingly salacious stories to feature on "To Catch a Predator," culminating in the real-life attempt to catch Texas assistant defense attorney Bill Conradt (a fantastically cast Alex Winter) in a sting operation. Despite being one of the most recognizable actors around, Pattinson absolutely vanishes into his role as Chris, and I don't think there's any question that he'll make it into both the Best Actor category and the Best Supporting Actor category. Again, I don't think Pattinson can beat out a stalwart like Damon, but he deserves recognition for his work on a "biopic" that hits none of the expected beats of its genre and succeeds beautifully.

Focus Features

Hot Priest hive, rise up: It's finally Andrew Scott's time to shine. In Simon Stone's film "Elsinore," Scott, known for his work in "Fleabag," "All of Us Strangers," and "Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery," plays the real-life actor Ian Charleson, a Scottish legend who performed the title role in "Hamlet" at London's National Theatre as he struggled with serious complications from an AIDS diagnosis. (The film is set in the fall of 1989, when an HIV or AIDS diagnosis was tantamount to a death sentence — decades before the medical community innovated medications and other tools that can help keep the most severe complications at bay.) At the age of 40, years after his biggest roles in "Gandhi" and "Chariots of Fire," Scott's Ian takes over the role of the Danish prince Hamlet after Daniel-Day Lewis abruptly exits a production staged by director Richard Eyre (Johnny Flynn), who knows that Ian is sick. Thanks to the help of casting director Patsy Pollock (a wonderful Billie Piper), he's able to work while she looks after his physical health (including a series of Kaposi's sarcoma lesions).

I know that, on some level, "Elsinore" sounds like good old fashioned "Oscar bait," but Scott's performance manages to elevate this movie beyond that, and supporting turns from Piper, Monica Dolan, Joe Locke, Peter Mullan, and Juliet Stevenson, just to name a few, really help the film sing. Scott may not take home the gold for "Elsinore," but it feels like he could score his first-ever acting nomination.

The Academy Award nominations drop on January 21, 2027, and the ceremony will air on March 14.